By Holly Henbest
Right now, housing inventory is at its highest point in the past 10 years. That’s a significant shift — and yes, it’s creating more opportunity for buyers. But before you assume the market is softening across the board, let’s take a closer look at what the numbers really tell us.
Price Reductions Don’t Always Mean Values Are Falling
You’ve likely noticed more homes with price drops lately — but that doesn’t necessarily mean home values are declining. More often than not, these are homes that came on the market overpriced. With higher inventory, buyers have more choices, and overpricing becomes obvious fast. Sellers are adjusting to meet the market, not necessarily taking big losses.
Median Sales Price Down Slightly — But Context Matters
Yes, the median sales price has dipped — from $450,000 to $446,990 over the past month — a modest 0.7% decline. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. That small change reflects the types of homes being sold more than a universal drop in value. More lower-priced homes have closed recently, which naturally brings the median down, even if values in specific neighborhoods are holding strong.
Pending Sales Suggest a Price Rebound
There’s some encouraging news in the pending data: As of May 15, pending listings show an average list price per square foot of $323.84 — up 0.5% from April 15. That could indicate we’re in for a slight rebound in closed pricing after a couple of months of sharper declines. Again, keep in mind that this doesn’t really reflect that prices are increasing, rather an increase in activity in higher priced homes.
Also worth noting: 98.5% of pending listings are normal sales. Only 0.4% are REOs (bank-owned) and just 1.1% are pre-foreclosures or short sales. While foreclosure-related activity has ticked up slightly, it’s still historically very low.
Activity Slower Overall — But Homes Are Still Selling
Overall transaction volume is down and homes are taking longer to sell on average — but they are selling, and prices are holding steady when homes are priced right.
For example, we currently have two listings under contract in Desert Ridge:
• One sold after just 13 days on the market, compared to the average of 34 days for similar homes — and at a record-breaking price per square foot.
• Another home we listed in Aviano went under contract after 34 days, while the average for comparable homes is 94 days.
These aren’t anomalies — they’re proof that buyers are still active and ready to move when homes are well-presented, well-priced, and marketed strategically.
The Takeaway: Go Local & Dig Deeper
Yes, buyers have more negotiating power than they’ve had in years — but we are not in the midst of a price crash. This is just a more balanced market. The headlines won’t give you the full picture. You need to compare similar homes in the same neighborhood to understand what’s really happening.
Bottom line: Homes are still selling
Prices are still strong. And with the right strategy, both buyers and sellers can succeed in this market, but it may take more patience than we’ve had to have in the last few years. If you’re wondering how these trends affect your goals, let’s talk — we’ll go deeper than the headlines and get to the truth behind the numbers.
Holly has been a Desert Ridge resident since 2000 and has been a Realtor since 2006. She is the leader of The Henbest Team with Realty One Group. Holly is ranked in the top ½ of 1 percent of Realtors in Arizona and is a certified luxury marketing expert. She has been ranked #24 in the Top 50 Realtors by the “Phoenix Business Journal” for the past several years and recognized by “So Scottsdale!” magazine as a Real Estate Superstar for 2019, 2020 and 2021. She’s also been the #1 ranked realtor at Realty One Group/North Scottsdale for the past several years. Learn more at henbest.com.
