By Scott Gaertner, Associate Broker

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home this year, you may have questions about what’s happening with home prices today as the market cools. In the simplest sense, nationally, experts don’t expect prices to come crashing down, but the level of home price moderation will depend on factors like supply and demand in each local market.

That means, moving forward, home price appreciation will continue to vary by location, with more significant changes happening in overheated areas.
Here’s a quick snapshot of what the experts are saying:
Danielle Hale, chief economist at, says:
“The major question on the minds of homeowners and aspiring buyers alike is what will happen to home prices… Soaring prices were propelled by all-time low mortgage rates, which are a thing of the past. As a result, home price growth is expected to continue slowing, dipping below its pre-pandemic average to 5.4% for 2023, as a whole.”

Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, says:
“House price appreciation has slowed in all 50 markets we track, but the deceleration is generally more dramatic in areas that experienced the strongest peak appreciation rates.”

Taylor Marr, deputy chief economist at Redfin, says:
“For those bearish folks eagerly awaiting the home price crash, you’ll have to keep waiting. As much as demand is pulling back, supply is as well reducing downward pressure on prices in the short run.”

Finally, our own local economist Elliot Pollack, says:
“Home prices in Greater Phoenix and the Composite-20 index declined for the third consecutive month on a monthly basis. Year-over-year growth remains above double digits but declined significantly in the second half of the month.”

All Real Estate is Local. Very Local.
Above is a 12-month comparison of values of the largest cities in the Greater Phoenix area. Compared are the monthly median sale prices for Dec. 13 compared with June 13 and also with Dec. 13, 2021. Prices climbed for the first half of the year, though the first quarter was far more positive than the second.

Monthly median values can be quite volatile, and the larger the city the more confidence we can have in them simply due to a larger sample size. Phoenix is easily the largest city and shows us prices that have fallen 15% since June and are now down 4.5% from this time last year. But even though Scottsdale is the smallest of all the cities, clearly the values have held better to this point.

What Does This Mean for You?
The best way to get the answers you need is to lean on a local real estate advisor. They’ll be able to explain the latest trends in your specific market so you can make a confident and informed decision on your next step toward buying or selling a home.

Bottom Line
Subdivision, and even zip code, median statistics are too few to use in a comparison like this. But if you have questions about what’s happening with home prices today, let’s connect so you have the latest on our local market. Nobody sells as many homes in Scottsdale North as the Scott G Group.

Scott Gaertner is an Associate Broker with Keller Williams Arizona Realty who for the past 35+ years has helped more people find their lifestyle niche in the Scottsdale North area than anyone else. He also contributes his thoughts on the real estate market and lifestyle interests in the area and is the creator of For additional info, visit or call 480-634-5000.