By Scott Gaertner, Associate Broker
Recall those golden days when the Cromford Market Index chart was awash with green dots and every pointer aimed for the stars? Well, the tides have turned. The latest chart? It’s giving off the chilliest vibes we’ve felt since last November. And if there’s one treasure I’ve unearthed in my real estate adventures, the only constant about real estate is its inconsistency.
Let’s dive deeper into this. Each dawn, it seems the tide is pulling more in favor of the buyers. But don’t be fooled: sellers are like seasoned sailors with a few navigational tricks left. The currents are changing, but the ship hasn’t capsized just yet. Now, causing some waves are the continually rising mortgage rates. Many had set their compasses expecting interest rates to drift downwards this year. But the tides had other plans. The often-elusive bond market unfurled its unexpected sails, causing the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to climb from 7.3% to 7.7% within a month’s voyage. And the equities markets? They’re like unpredictable seas, with many foreseeing rougher waters ahead.
Predictably, this has buyers battening down their hatches. Imagine setting your sights on a property with these financial squalls blowing, further intensified by global political headwinds.
Steering through this sea can be disorienting. Once as rare as a sailor’s tale, new listings have been appearing on the horizon much more frequently. And with buyer winds not blowing as fiercely, active listings have surged like a rising tide, up by 12% in just a month! It’s crucial to master the ebb and flow of this supply and demand dance.
Housing charts are also raising a few storm flags. Bank of America indicates that our current housing market more closely resembles the early 1980s than 2008. In that era, Fed Chair Paul Volcker bravely steered the ship, determined to curb the inflationary waves started in the 70s, even if it risked running aground. Let’s hope we drop anchor, and we don’t sail those waters again.
On The Local Front: Scottsdale North Listing Count
Even our Scottsdale North safe harbor, usually known for its calm waters, is feeling the ripples. One look at the chart above reveals the new currents in motion. As the momentum of sales becomes gentler, figures like ‘months of supply’ are catching the breeze. Those vibrant seller’s market gusts we felt in past quarters? They seem to be softening, especially with this past month’s peak at 264 new listings.
From my perch on the crow’s nest, Scottsdale North’s real estate often charts unexpected courses. Just a year ago, who would’ve foreseen that $/SF would set sail upwards by 3%? It’s wise to keep a steady hand on the wheel and not be swayed by fleeting currents. What’s on the horizon for the next eight weeks? Uncertain waters, with the possibility of some surprises. But let’s not forget our navigational skills; we’ve sailed through squalls before, like the one in October 2022.
Are you thinking of navigating the unpredictable currents of the real estate market? It’s better not to venture alone. Consider partnering with an experienced local real estate broker. On a voyage this unpredictable, having the right captain makes all the difference.
Navigate the ScoNo seas with confidence. Have Scott set your course. Dial 480-634-5000!
Scott Gaertner is an Associate Broker with Keller Williams Arizona Realty who for the past 35+ years has helped more people find their lifestyle niche in the Scottsdale North area than anyone else. He also contributes his thoughts on the real estate market and lifestyle interests in the area and is the creator of ConnectingScottsdaleNorth.com. For additional info, visit scottgaertnergroup.com or call 480-634-5000.